This article will be analytically discussing the ground reality to find out the answer of the question asking “whether Mahinda or Maithri will be the next leader of Sinhala Buddhist chauvinism?” instead of just predicting it anything alone.
To tell the very short introduction about both racist candidates competing in this presidential election, no one wants to know anything about Mahinda newly. If we speak about Maithri, we can say that Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura districts mainly in its border villages are the stronghold of him. His heredity is well known in the racist activities of exterminating the Tamils in the border villages. He has long been targeted by the LTTE. He was narrowly escaped from the Tiger’s attack in 2008. He has been being in politics so far with a single identity as a Sinhala Buddhist chauvinist.
Moreover, with this Sinhala racist Maithri, Chandrika, Ranil who is proudly called by the Sinhalese as the cunning person, almost all the Sinhala fundamentalists and the Sinhala leftists (calling them as leftists alone is laughable. Keeping the name leftist as their suffix is shame to all leftists around the world) are being paraded as an unprecedented and transparent Sinhala Buddhist team which keeps aloof from just saying even a single word related to Tamils in its manifesto, as an one step exceeded team rather than Mahinda’ regime which completed the genocide committed against Tamils, freshly contesting in this presidential election.
Mahinda’s mob is endeavoring to beat Maithri at any rate by making the best use of “Lake House Medias” in this presidential election. As the international community desires for a regime change favorable to them, international Medias keep on rendering their massive support to Maithri. Modi seems different from the western mentality only in this matter as he seems to have taken a stance in supporting to Mahinda. By notifying the comment made by Sushma Swaraj, Minister of Foreign Affairs that healthier changes are visible in the activities of Mahinda, Minister Arumugam Thondaman, one of the leaders of upcountry Tamils who completely reflects the Indian stance supporting to Mahinda and carefully having a complete observations about the activities of Indian embassy, it could probably be said that Modi loves Mahinda’s regime. While the situation prevailing like this, we will analyze the ground reality prevailing in this presidential election in Sri Lanka.
First of all, the societal attitude based on the ethnicity should be carefully noted so as to understand how its reflections will be in the upcoming election in order to find how the election results would be in Sri Lanka where it is mostly to be thought on ethnic lines, many social science concepts became worthless, the desires of the Sinhala Buddhist chauvinism only be resolved and the being the country that baseness to the decent civilized society.
Though the total number of votes on the basis of ethnicity is yet to be officially revealed by the Sinhalese rulers, it can be bit certainly said that 68% of total votes are of Sinhalese votes. To understand the Sinhalese mentality in this presidential election, approaching the Sinhalese people in terms of class is utmost important. Elite class, middle class and lower class are 5%, 60% and 35% respectively among the Sinhalese people.
The upper class Sinhalese is the capitalist class. They are huge cash crocodiles. The United National Party is always favorable to the most of them. Many of them collapsed in the regime of Mahinda & Co. This upper class waits for the time to overthrow Mahinda as they are being side cornered in the regime of Mahinda who implements his intention of prevent others from doing big businesses other than his family members doing so.
Next, we will look at the mentality of the middle class Sinhalese people. They who are 60% among the Sinhalese are worse affected by the ethnic crisis as they let their needs increasingly grow cause of their stuck in globalization and unable to generate income for accomplishing the increasing needs on daily basis. Instead of changing their attitude to sort it out their problems, they keep their faith on regime change and vote to bring it over the years like the sheep goats. They are now facing severe economic hardships that had never been this much. It could be discernible that they, who firmly decided to buy rice even in the gold price while they were thinking of the annihilation of LTTE, firmly decided to stand for a regime change. However, those who have given the posts and offers by Mahinda, those who benefitted the regionally privileged developments and those who say not to renounce Mahinda whatever it is are also comprised in this middle class. It could be reminded that Chandrika had never been renounced by this middle class Sinhalese. She left the presidency after being completed her tenure. Majority of this class felt harmony of life in her regime. Mahinda is so scared about Chandrika who stands as the king maker behind Maithri. Those who are experienced in judging the Sinhala state and its antics now say that the votes of this middle class Sinhalese that represents the 60% of the total Sinhalese population would be in a ratio as Maithri: Mahinda= 60:40.
Let us consider the lower class Sinhalese people. They are 35% of the total Sinhalese population. They are much satisfied with the rice and sampol. They do not have much need. They do not fail to enjoy the greater incentives in the Mahinda’s regime. In addition, it cannot be falsely repudiated just because of the political motive that Mahinda concerned much about the rural developments. It could be certainly concluded that lower class Sinhalese people are delighted in the Mahinda’s regime.
But in this 35% that representing the grassroots Sinhalese people, approximately 11% are belonging to the border villages of Anuradhapura and Polanaruwa, which are widely known as the stronghold of Maithri. Only the remaining 24% are belonging to the places of Mahinda’s influential. Therefore, the votes of the lower-class Sinhalese that represents the 35% of the total Sinhalese population will be in a ratio as Mahinda: Maithri= 69: 31.
Let us now consider the Tamils. Approaching the Tamils by categorizing them into as North-East Tamils and the upcountry Tamils is appropriate. North-East Tamils and the upcountry Tamils represent the 11% and 6% of the total votes of this country respectively. Considering the North-East Tamils, it can be said that they pathetically lost their soulful leadership and other strengths it had in terms of everything following the genocide committed against them and now being as a doleful nation. This is the vulnerable nation in Sri Lankan politics. The solution to this people who pitifully left isolated is utterly up to their hands that fought for a long. No outsiders will bring the solution to the national question of these people. In fact, they now somewhat understood the deceitfulness of the international community.
Now they feel themselves as vulnerable. Like the vindictive attitude of the child who takes revenge on the Sinhala chauvinism by urinating over the Buddha statue, they will support anything that opposes Mahinda who committed genocide against them. Thus they will vote for Maithri. But most of them will not even have a glance at this presidential election. In addition, very few of them who are along the lines of LTTE’s thinking style to boycott the election so as to make it possible to bring Mahinda to the regime with the intention of teaching a good lesson to him. What they really want is the boys (Pediyal) nurtured by their adoring leader. As their mindsets are being like this, 5% of it will boycott the election and 5% of the remaining votes will go Maithri among their 11% representation of the total votes in the country.
Now we move to the upcountry Tamils. The votes of them are 6% of the total votes in this country. The upcountry Tamils, who are totally frustrated about the genocide committed against Tamils, feel animosity towards Mahinda. Majority of their votes are certainly made sure to Maithri following the defection of Thigambaram and Rathakrishnan. However, votes of those innocent, who subservient to the high-handed of Arumugam Thondaman, will probably go to Mahinda. Therefore, most probably, 4 % will go to Maithri and the remaining 2% will go to Mahinda among the 6% of their representation in the total votes.
As next, we will talk about the Muslim people. The votes of them are 14% of the total votes in this country. Frankly speaking, it won’t be wrong to call the Muslim leaders “political prostitutes”. According to them, the meaning of politics is to enjoy the offers by supporting to the strongest side. Owing to their calculation that guesstimates the arrival of Maithri to the regime; Muslim leaders except few like Ashwar openly expressed their support to Maithri. Depending on the number of files on them in the hands of Mahinda, they may again defect to Mahinda. However, 70% of the Muslim votes will go to Maithri as the Muslim people have understood that Mahinda Mahatmhaya is the person who established the BBS and nourished it for committing the anti-Muslim acts that were already committed and still waiting for the time to be committed.
Therefore, when we calculate it by considering the above analyzed things, 61% of the total votes would be gone to Maithri. Our projections will only be valid if the fair election practice is maintained. But, Mahinda knows the deviousness of making use of the Department of Election. He was succeeded in the last presidential election in this way. General Sarath Fonseka, the opposition candidate of last election also keeps on vociferously saying this several times repeatedly. Therefore, Mahinda must do the deviousness of making use of the Department of Election in the upcoming presidential election. However, there is a limit to eat even the food is given free of charge. Therefore, the votes which are going to be gained in the devious way by making use of the Department of Election will not be enough to bring Mahinda to the regime as he is in such a toughest situation.
However, even the life is uncertain to Mahinda’s family without their regime. Then what else can be done by Mahinda in order to safeguard him and his family? Even the State Intelligence Service (SIS) has been given the task of overhearing the conversation for Mahinda. Those, who are familiarized in living under the commands of Godabhaya, are in the top level of the military. The Military regime can be brought in Sri Lanka in case the consensuses of just three brigades are taken. It is really intolerable to the international community. However, Mahinda has no way out other than this as the final step to survive. Whatever it is Mahinda understood the fact that international community cannot do anything in Sri Lanka by disregarding the interests and opinions of India.
Now, Mahinda will implement his final choice if the consent of Modi is gotten. Tamil people still in the military regime. What will be the new problem to the Tamil people as they have been being subjected to all the possible troubles? This is the problem of the Sinhalese people. The sufferings that may come to them will certainly be new to them. Tamils themselves should determine their own fate. The regime changes in Sri Lanka result in increasing hostility to the Tamils throughout the history. This is what the evolution of Sinhala Buddhist chauvinism which left the Tamils with no alternative solutions other than fighting against it. Tell to the Sinhalese people to prudently observe this upcoming presidential election with high concern as they may be forced to live in the military regime. Seeing the Modi’s stance in the coming weeks will realize whether Maithri or the Military will come to the regime.