Precision Chess move are being made in Sri Lanka’s politics, centering on the General Elections. On one side Mahindha and politicians supporting him are making their moves against Maithri and his team in their own pompous way. On the other side Maithri and his partners, Ranil and Chandrika, are making their moves cunningly in a silent manner . Two or three months ahead will determine whether the moves of Maithri’s team for throwing down Mahindha will be successful or the moves of Mahindha’s team to throw down the Maithri-Ranil alliance will be victorious.
Several people expected that with the defeat in the President’s Election on the 8th Mahindha’s political life will come to an end. But Mahindha Rajapakse, who made a temporary withdrawal from the political arena, steadied himself in a short period and commenced his political moves with the help of singleton politicians like, Vimal Weeravansa, Dinesh Goonewardne, and Vasudeva Nanayakkara. Although it was forecasted that these moves are not going give any large scale advantages to Mahindha, at one stage they began to pose crises to Maithri’s faction. Particularly, It could be said that, Mahindha’s team was victorious in making Mahindha under the betel symbol of UPFA. Further it was made appear that Maithri could not do any thing. Concerns had been expressed by several people, that, if Mahindha manages to win in the election and enter the Parliament, then it would disturb the Good Governance situation prevailing now. Several different factions had started to overtly criticize Mairthri and his long time silence against the activities of Mahindha faction. The people of the country, especially the Tamil people were pushed into a confused state, some sort of political instability was created in the country.
In this context, little by little, the silence knots of Maithri started to unfurl at the start of this week. Particularly, the special address president Maithripala Sirisena made last Tuesday, had revealed to certain extent, his Machiavellian (Or Sanakkiyan) plan. It had made clear that a net had been laid very cunningly to defeat Mahindha again. Keeping the SLFP undivided, it had envisaged to make Mahindha Rajapakse a dud coin all the while keeping him inside.
As a first move of this plan of the Maithri faction, they prevented Mahindha moving out of the party and sustained him inside the UPFA. He avoided a split in SLFP and the Alliance by this. If a situation was created where Mahindha Rajapakse could have went out and formed a new alliance, around 100 former MPs would have rallied round him. Due to this the SLFP would have weakened resulting in a strong alliance being formed under leadership of Mahindha Rajapakse. To prevent this, he provided the opportunity to Mahindha to contest under UPFA and restrained him inside the party.
As the second stage of this plan, Maithri, paved the way to the formation of a new alliance called, United National Alliance for Good Governance, by annexing those who were helping him, to take forward his good governance and were very close to him, with the United National Party. While strengthening UNP through this he had psychologically weakened the UPFA from which Mahindha is contesting. Because of this some sort of an uncertainty about their victory had been caused among leaders in the UPFA. This also had started to affect the chance of victory of the Mahindha Team.
The third stage was the Tuesdays address to the nation by the President, Maithripala Sirisena. He had declared in this speech that, he will never support Mahindha, that, he will never appoint him as Prime Minister, and that, even if the UPFA wins, he will appoint another senior leader as the Prime Minister. While, Mahindha’s Prime Minister dream had been blasted to pieces, it had raised questions regarding the agenda of Mahindha faction.
As per the constitution of Sri Lanka, The president has the power to appoint a person deemed to be fit by him as the Prime Minister. Hence, even if the Mahindha faction win the election and majority of the MPs recommend to appoint Mahindha Rajapakse as the Prime Minister, the President could say that he is not suitable and rejects him. Hence a situation where Mahindha could not become the Prime Minister as long as Maithri remains the President, at least for the next 5 years. In this context, It is a big question, how dedicated will be the other politicians, in working for a person who cannot become a Prime Minister. Apart from that, if the voters other than strong supporters will tend to avoid voting for the UPFA, if they come to know that there will be an uncertainty prevailing regarding to, who will be their Prime Minister, in case of the UPFA winning the election. As the UPFA, led by Mahindha had already been projected as a racist alliance, It will be doubtful that they will receive the votes of minorities such as Tamils and Muslims. There is a situation that only hard line Sinhala people will support the candidates of the UPFA.
Because of such reasons, the wining chances of UPFA are seem to be in a weak position. Hence, it is doubtful that the UPFA led by Mahindha will win even a simple majority and probably it will be pushed into the position of the Opposition. In this situation former President, Mahindha Rajapakse, who was considered as the emperor or Sri Lanka will be reduced to being only an opposition MP. This will make the political life of Mahindha a difficult one for the next 5 years.
If political calculations are right, the fourth move of the project designed by Maithri to throw down Mahindha is expected to be activated after the new parliament is constituted. In accordance with this plan, important members elected through UPFA, will be inducted into the United National Front for Good Governance, by giving them Ministerial positions. This will further weaken the UPFA in the opposition and Mahindha Rajapakse.
Finally, Mahindha Rajapakse and his supporters will be reduced, position of a dud coin, just like the UNP and its leader Ranil were, in the past periods. This situation which could extend to at least 5 years will make Mahindha a dud coin and expel him from politics. This is considered as the plan Maithri had devised to throw down Mahindha. However, The fate of the plan devised by Maithri’s team to throw away Mahindha permanently, will be determined by the Votes of the people and Time.